By Mark Van Deventer
The Gr 1 World Sports Betting Cape Fillies Guineas (off time 15h25) headlines a quality program at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday. The father/son training partnership of Brett and James Crawford is two-handed with MON PETIT CHERIE and FATAL FLAW, drawn on the inner and extreme outer respectively, but they will have to fend off the dashing late surge of Dean Kannemeyer’s potentially brilliant filly, GIMMIE’S COUNTESS.
She has tremendous acceleration, witness a scintillating sub 22 seconds finish in the Diana Stakes, but must somehow handle an awkward draw (11/13). The longer run in of the Summer Course will help her jockey, Craig Zackey, though hold up horses are always hostage to fortune. GIMMIE’S COUNTESS will need all the favours weaving past slowing rivals.
MON PETIT CHERIE beat GIMMIE’S COUNTESS in the Gr 2 Western Cape Fillies Championship over 1400m under a great ride by Richard Fourie when cutting the shortest path home down the inside, while her rival was launching a spirited bid from far back down the outer. She should get the run of the race again as her versatility will enable the wily, Fourie to position her optimally from draw 1, depending on his reading of the pace.
Others to finish behind her in that key early November clash were: BEWARE THE BOMB (pipped after showing pace and rallying bravely;) LITTLE SUZIE (stayed on solidly and will enjoy this extra furlong;) KINDA WONDERFUL (ran on especially well after being slow out and switching;) WHISTLE THE TUNE (also had a tougher trip, planted wide, then easing near the finish;) SYMPHONY IN WHITE (hit the front looking like a winner only to peter out near the line – this 12/1 lurker will now strip fitter;) plus Mai Sensation who raced freely then tired three lengths back.
FATAL FLAW could be dangerous even though she has unluckily drawn marble 13. She held her own racing handy in KZN against the freakish shooting star, Quid Pro Quo in the Slipper and Thekwini Stakes then transferred that top notch form to the Highveld by cosily beating off subsequent Betway Gr 3 Fillies Mile winner, World of Alice. She has been designated joint 5/2 favourite by the bookies for those achievements together with GIMMIE’S COUNTESS.
Alan Greeff brings SPLICETHEMAINBRACE down from the Eastern Cape. She has won six of seven starts and has an official merit rating of 108. This is the same rating as 6/1 shot, MON PETIT CHERIE, and a point ahead of 10/1 chance, BEWARE THE BOMB and SYMPHONY IN WHITE, but slightly shy of GIMMIE’S COUNTESS (OMR 111) and FATAL FLAW (OMR 110.)
SCARLET MACAW will be one of the rank outsiders as she steps up sharply in class after beating this Wednesday’s Class 4 winner Family Power, but it could be a mistake to throw her out completely. Her final time and finishing fraction compare nicely with what the main players in the Fillies Championships achieved on the same day over the same course and distance. Kabelo Matsunyane might be able to guide this Horizon filly into the fray at a big price (33/1 ante post).
HOPE CHEST is harder to peg. She is unexposed and improving rapidly. At a guestimate, she could be around two lengths weaker than BEWARE THE BOMB on the form of their Maiden meeting. The market is taking a gloomy view of her claims as she is quoted at 70/1.
Likewise, recent cruise-control, Maiden winner, GOODNESSGRACIOUSME is an unknown quantity. Top tier conditioner, Justin Snaith has plenty of talent in his big stable and is not one to pitch his horses into Graded races with misplaced optimism. On those grounds she cannot be dismissed out of hand, either, though the layers give her a meagre 2% squeak of scoring.
In summary, GIMMIE’S COUNTESS is the pick though she will need to beat the draw as well as some high-quality rivals. She is due a lucky break at this coveted level after being stiff in the Gr 1 Allan Robertson when hemmed in on the fence. But for that traffic snarl up she might have toppled Quid Pro Quo – and any horse in SA that can live with Barend Botes’ star is a Gr 1 winner in waiting.
The market has it about right making nationally proven, FATAL FLAW a major player, with MON PETIT CHERIE, who should get the run of the race, next in line, followed by Beware the Bomb.
SYMPHONY IN WHITE, acquitted herself well against Quid Pro Quo in KZN and comes in primed for a massive effort could be a reasonable each way option at 12’s.
Punters shopping for even fancier prices can consider KINDA WONDERFUL (has received some early longshot support at 25/1), LITTLE SUZIE and even lob little, SCARLET MACAW onto wider trifecta and quartet tickets.
