By Mark van Deventer
High class, 3YO EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN – second to One Stripe in the Gr 1 Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas and then heavily backed winner of the Gr 1 World Sports Betting Cape Town MET – has the SplashOut Cape Derby (Gr 1) at his mercy with a 24-point edge on official merit ratings.
Justin Snaith’s entry has scared off the opposition, with only six runners taking on the Lancaster Bomber colt. He proved his worth with a fine victory in the MET coming with a powerful rail run from 11th to win, going away against the best older middle distance horses in the country.
He now faces contemporaries over the same Hollywoodbets Kenilworth course and 2000m distance and is an extremely short- priced favourite to comfortably see them off. He should notch up another Gr 1 under regular pilot, Richard Fourie.
Talented GARRIX could be the exacta underneath play, though stable talk suggests he will be at his best after gelding. He has twice run on well enough behind reopposing SAIL THE SEAS and ZEITZ. An easy run 2000m should suit him nicely and he figures to get a saloon passage from draw 1 in a short field.
NATIVE RULER (out-finished in the Politician Stakes), SAIL THE SEAS and ZEITZ (remarkably all four are sons of Vercingetorix) seem likely to race handily.
None are tearaways though, so there is a prospect of a false run race – a similar pace scenario to what unfolded when the blinkered grey Zeitz dashed away in the Politician Stakes. Andre Nel’s consistent entry continues to progress at each successive start and is bound to run well, though GARRIX is 3kgs better off for a 2.75 length beating, where things did not work out as smoothly in running as trainer Piet Steyn had hoped.
SAIL THE SEAS
SAIL THE SEAS was backed into favourite for that race a month ago, but was not a factor from a wide draw – racing too far back in a slow run affair to make any impact. He mixes his form, alternating a good race with a bad one and is “due”” a better show on Saturday. The official handicapper has pegged him at 103, second best in this field.
Snaith Racing also have EXPRESS YOURSELF and DAWN TILL DUSK in the line-up. The former did not trouble the judge in the Politician Stakes, this after taking six starts to win a Maiden, and is the lowest rated (OMR 87) here by a considerable margin.
DAWN TILL DUSK (two wins from 9 starts) is often slow out, but possesses a sharp turn of foot when in the mood. He is entitled to get closer to Zeitz on the weight turnaround so might place, but he comes in with an OMR of 93 and faces an impossible task against formidable stable mate, EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN (OMR 127).
There is no such thing as a racing certainty – indeed, “any horse can get beat on any day,” wryly noted Hall of Fame jockey, Eddie Arcaro.
But it would be a shock of seismic proportions if EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN were to lose the 2025 SplashOut Cape Derby, such is his superiority on pure ability going into this prestigious race for 3YOs.
