By Mark van Deventer
Sussing out nine early season 3YOs that have only mustered 49 runs between them requires some imagination. The challenge horse players face in the Cape Classic, a Gr 3 over 1400m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Sunday, is hazarding a prediction based on “incomplete” evidence.
Healthy youngsters make substantial improvement during the Spring as they develop physically. Connections working out what their preferred distance and style of racing may be after some trial and error can potentially elicit much better performances than those already captured in the form book.
AVERSATOR is a 3YO Rafeef colt who stayed on well in the Gatecrasher Stakes at Hollywoodbets Greyville over this trip back in June.
He blew like a gale in the betting on his seasonal bow a month ago and clearly needed the run. His form pattern of winning second up is noted. Sean Veale rides Dean Kannemeyer’s entry who should get a ground-saving trip from the inside alley.
Clinton Binda saddles CHAPBOOK (also sired by Rafeef) who found his older and heavily punted rival, Street Outlaw, way too speedy on his first Cape outing. He should prefer going an extra panel. Previously, he ran 4.5 lengths second to Jan van Goyen at Turffontein – one of the best of his juvenile generation.
VAPOUR TRAIL is interesting with red hot jock Richard Fourie booked on Vaughan Marshall’s charge. The son of Erik the Red’s Langerman form ties in closely with a few here.
PAY THE PALACE (by Potala Palace) is another one of those who was in the Langerman’s blanket finish. It was a falsely run, jog-sprint contest where Piet and Elbert Steyn’s 50/1 longshot suffered a couple bumps on the inside rail before succumbing by half a length to tenacious, re-opposing grey, Absolutely Yes.
COUNT OF ROUEN hails from Peter Muscutt’s travelling party. Though out finished by AVERSATOR (who made up ten lengths as opposed to four by the Count) in their clash with Malmesbury Missile, they ended up right next to each other at the wire.
The William Longsword gelding was not disgraced subsequently in Graded company during the KwaZulu-Natal Winter – achievements given considerable credit by the NHRA handicappers. He is therefore officially best weighted, together with ARISTOCRATIC.
Langerman victor, ABSOLUTELY YES, has run twice since that mid-winter slog in the bog. He was typically determined when only a low-flying Jet Force could get by on his Durbanville sighter. Hiked up the class ladder in the Matchem Stakes, he was too strong early, suffered a slipped saddle, and understandably caved in late. The Danon Platina gelding ended up four lengths off excellent older sprinter, Questioning, but it would be unfair to take that result at face value.
Right next to him in the Matchem Stakes, on similar weight terms was ARISTOCRATIC. On that occasion, Dean Kannemeyer’s entry ran on particularly well down the inside fence after a slow start in a performance that, for opposite reasons to ABSOLUTELY YES, should also be upgraded.
ARISTOCRATIC’s prior form in KwaZulu – Natal was eye-catching, making good late progress to Chronicle King and Zalatoris after lagging early. ARISTOCRATIC is by imported Japanese stallion, Danon Platina.
The now gelded RANDOLPH HEARST (by Gimmethegreenlight) could have improved markedly since his Langerman run when he was coughing and spluttering. Even so, he produced the fastest finish in that race and only has a length to make up on his Justin Snaith trained companion, ABSOLUTELY YES.
GOOD FOR YOU is drawn widest of all here and seems a clear pace factor having led or stalked the pace at virtually all eight starts.
Glen Kotzen’s runner is the most experienced – and indeed most exposed – in the field as a Gr 1 victor in the Gold Medallion at Hollywoodbets Scottsville in May. His first start of the Cape season was heartening with promising speedball, All the Rage only just pipping him in a stiff sprint.
Compiling a speed map requires a leap of faith but it seems hard pulling; ABSOLUTELY YES and GOOD FOR YOU (by Legislate) are the most likely horses to cross over and set brisk fractions.
VAPOUR TRAIL should get his opportunity settling on the rail behind those on-pace horses.
Jockey Calvin Habib is aware of the importance of early toe so should be in the vanguard on CHAPBOOK, drawn 2. PAY THE PALACE will also be in touch. He outran long shot status in the Langerman using those tactics, and Corne Orffer remains on board.
The balance of the field will probably be settled early and conserved for stretch runs. The best of these hold-up horses are, arguably, ARISTOCRATIC and RANDOLPH HEARST, while AVERSATOR also stayed on willingly in the Gatecrasher Stakes.
There are many imponderables in the Cape Classic. Only being “wise after the event” is the typical punter’s lament in these Spring season 3YO puzzles.
Pressed to make a selection, ARISTOCRATIC ticks quite a few important boxes and seems a dependable option to run well. The expected strong pace should tee things up nicely for Craig Zackey to deliver him smoothly when it counts, and so he cracks the nod in an intriguing race.
GOOD FOR YOU, who is proven at this class level, ABSOLUTELY YES – who is very dangerous if settling properly – VAPOUR TRAIL, who maps to get the run of the race, and untapped talent, RANDOLPH HEARST are all worthy of the utmost respect.
