By Mark van Deventer
With officially best weighted, Eight on Eighteen now a confirmed runner and firmly ensconced top of the boards favourite for the Hollywoodbets Durban July Gr 1, that is a convenient starting point when analysing this year’s race over 2200m.
Justin Snaith’s representative is a proven winner in prestigious Gr 1’s over middle distances; is teed up for another huge effort third run after a pause, having settled in just fine in KZN (witness an awesome Daily News Gr 1 demolition job) and already makes multiple Gr 1 winning jockey Richard Fourie’s best three thoroughbreds of all- time list.
These attributes make him the most probable winner carrying 57kg’s, but whether calculating punters are thrilled by the prospect of taking less than 2/1 about that eventuality in a hectic 18-deep scuffle around Durban city’s tight track is another matter.
Dean Kannemeyer has deftly manoeuvred, high class The Real Prince straight into the July off an excellent run in the Drill Hall Stakes. A fine figure recorded in a fluent mile victory at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth in February gives some encouragement that he will be effective over this longer route. But only the race itself will provide the answer if he stays or not. It was worth finding out at 28/1 ante post and even now there is some juice in the price of 14/1.
Glen Kotzen’s On My Honour rushed home in the Cup Trial Gr 3 and will be a threat carrying 53kg’s as a developing three-year-old. Likewise, Mike and Matt de Kock have talented contemporary, Immediate Edge (stylish in the Jubilee) racing off the same weight.
Selukwe is an older horse to take seriously. He may have toiled to belatedly break his Maiden and seemed destined to compete in the lower rungs of the class ladder but has since enjoyed a mid- career resurgence.
Trainer, Andre Nel explains that Selukwe loves it up in KZN where fast run races enable him to settle better and then use his stamina in energy-sapping finishes. Some shrewdies quickly latched on to this course- suited, peaking, 5YO set to tote just 54kg’s in early ante post markets and his price has shrunk to 14’s.
And, what to make of last year’s brave winner Oriental Charm? He got a clear round in 2024, dominating from the front end at a pace to suit himself whilst bad things were happening to several rivals in a typically rough contest.
That observation is in no way meant to diminish his accomplishment, but if subjected to greater pace pressure whilst carrying 60kg’s, James Crawford’s’ well-drawn, formidable galloper could be vulnerable late in the piece. To leave him off shortlists would, however, be foolish.
Madison Valley is a mid-weighted 4YO with no stamina doubts that will be staying on when others are caving in.
Litigation, who got in as first reserve after See It Again’s withdrawal, rates fairly close to Madison Valley on their Cup Trial Gr 3 meeting but has a different running style. He likes to go handy and rally gamely but lacks the finishing dash of more accomplished rivals and should be held safe.
Gladatorian is ultra dependable over shorter (has won up to 1750m), but this prolific winner with a dashing finish, ventures into unchartered waters going 2200m.
Royal Victory who has won at this Gr 1 level on the Highveld, clocked in third in the 2024 Hollywoodbets Durban July despite a turbulent trip and comes in off a smooth prep so will have supporters. But he is high enough in the weights now and it will take all Muzi Yeni’s race riding prowess to circumvent draw 17.
Eastern Cape invader, My Best Shot is interesting. He has cleaned up playing at home (ten wins from 16 starts) whilst running some neat figures and this 30/1 longshot must have a shake of hitting the board for Alan Greeff, who is very sharp when travelling horses.
Atticus Finch’s reputation hinges on clinching the Summer Cup Gr 1 from Purple Pitcher and hails from fine horseman, Alec Laird’s stable. This specific race has been targeted some time back. He should enjoy racing handy from a low draw on this circuitous track just behind the speed horses and based on the World Sports Betting Cape Town Met weight turnaround with Eight On Eighteen, is one to add into single race exotics at 33/1.
Rainbow Lorikeet, Purple Pitcher and Pomodoro’s Jet are the biggest outsiders in the Hollywoodbets Durban July. Candice Bass Robinson trains the former, a consistent performer in lower- level fillies’ races who will need a career top to trouble the scorer.
Purple Pitcher could, together with Confederate, Litigation and Oriental Charm, be an important pace factor. His best efforts have been at altitude on the Highveld when grinding oxygen-deprived opponents down and he may lack the requisite finishing punch at sea level.
Pomodoro’s Jet loves to win and is admirably consistent, yet his overall profile suggest he is too close in the weights to horses with flashier CV’s.
Okavango (a safely held 3rd in the Daily News), Native Ruler (also well beaten in that same race by his Snaith trained, stable mate, Eight On Eighteen) and Confederate (went pillar-to-post over Fire Attack in the SA Classic and will inject early speed here, too) are very smart 3YO’s drawn towards the outer.
Confederate is respected under jock, Warren Kennedy (back in SA for a short stint after making such an impressive impact when upping sticks to New Zealand), but they might just be in a bit too deep here.
In summary, Eight on Eighteen, an outstanding thoroughbred, looms as the most likely winner but, purely from a betting perspective, is an underlay at current odds.
Regally endowed talent, The Real Prince is a speculative each way alternative at seven times the price, but bettors must consider the possibility that he does not cope with eleven panels and fails to last home.
Others to make it on the contender shortlist for Saturday’s 16:00PM showdown are Oriental Charm, Atticus Finch and Selukwe, plus progressive youngsters, Immediate Edge and On My Honour.
