– Written by Mark van Deventer
DAIMYO ran into a transformed-by-blinkers, Voorloopertjie, a month ago, and came off second best. His conqueror went on to perform credibly when pipped in a Class 4 on handicap debut, so that March maiden form has a nice shape to it.
DAIMYO, who also got a neat figure when outmuscled by Blue Bay at his penultimate should get all the favours drawn 1 over 1600m, and has the excellent JP van der Merwe to capitalize in Race 3 at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Wednesday.
While Justin Snaith’s entry is poised to shed his Maiden tag in the opening Leg of the P6, he does face lively threats from PRINCE OF TIBET, ETOILEFILLANTE and AZURRI plus Brett Crawford’s two entries, AMANCIO and MIDWAY.
Vaughan Marshall’s horses have been running well during April and he saddles a couple of longer-priced horses in the last two races (ONI SAN and FINAL MOVE) that could make the exotics pay. Both are coming back from breaks so their fitness must be taken on trust. Realistically, it is delusional to seek “perfection” when punting outsiders – they all have flaws or chinks in their armour, hence the big prices.
But FINAL MOVE’s only win came after a rest and he’s dropped even further down in the merit ratings to the point where he can hit the board in a weak field. The speedy WORDSWORTH is the favourite and Greg Ennion’s charge will for sure go well with Richard Fourie riding, but taking 3/1 about a horse with a career record of two wins from 52 starts is questionable strategy.
Hooking the 20/1 FINAL MOVE up in exotic combos with WORDSWORTH, WYLIE JACK, last start winner WHY NOT JACKIE, SEEKING PEACE and LOVER’S LANE is worth a speculative dabble.
As for ONI SAN, she takes on some decent older sprinting fillies in a tightly rated Middle Stakes, carded as Race 7 over 1100m. The fickle and unsound Southern Skies’ dip behind The Abdicator is strong form in the context of this race – however whether she can follow up is a moot point.
MISS MARGUERITE has been running nicely without reward and the 4/1 ante-post favourite is overdue a fifth victory, while Distinction possesses a powerful finish which, given a clear passage (unlike the fate she suffered last time), might propel her into the winner’s enclosure.
ONI SAN ran to some of the Cape’s best sprinting fillies during the Cape Summer Season, such as the brilliant Winter Cloud, Laiserfaire winner, Baltic Secret, Gr2 winner Kwinta’s Light, and Pacific Green.
Horses often hit career peaks between their 12th and 15th career starts. This will be her 13th outing, and she has strengthened physically during a three-month layoff. She will outrun her odds of 16/1, is at least worth adding to wider Jackpot/Pick 6 perms and might even be worth an each way tickle.
Another wacky long shot, TO THE HILT is of interest in Race 4. The half-brother to Legal Eagle has not shown much in three tries, yet he showed signs of life in a sprint when blinkered for the first time. He now stretches out way further, (which is what trainer Lucinda Woodruff believes he needs) and gets weight from most of his rival under the terms of an Open Maiden.
There is a wide spread of form making a confident selection impossible in this race. Punters are advised to include as many horses as affordable to their Picks given the complexity of the contest. That said, keeping the eligible-to-progress TO THE HILT on side in single race exotics could pay big dividends if the 25/1 rank outsider improves sufficiently to make the frame.
– Images by Chase Liebenberg
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