By Mark van Deventer
Consulting the best weighted rankings won’t be much help in the Cartier Paddock Stakes, a Gr 1 over 1800m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, on Saturday, 4 January, as the primary contenders are so tightly clustered on official merit ratings. The top five (DOUBLE GRAND SLAM, RED PALACE, RASCOVA, SAARTJIE and SILVER SANCTUARY) are all ranked within two points of each other.
There might be a pace angle though as the presence of totally outclassed front-runner, LAVENDER BAY suggests that Andre Nel is intent on ensuring a hard run contest to suit Plattner Racing’s stable star, SAARTJIE. She was undone in a false run Victress Stakes, won by re-opposing, RAINBOW LORIKEET with KNOCKOUT and GOLD POKER GAME placing. Nel clearly is taking a more proactive approach by entering LAVENDER BAY to ensure no dawdling this time around.
Glen Kotzen’s RASCOVA is another confirmed front runner and long-striding, high class 4YO, RED PALACE races handy too, so this should be a proper test of middle-distance aptitude.
SAARTJIE, with five wins and numerous (stiff) seconds from 18 starts in races at the highest level, may just hold RED PALACE on their Gold Bracelet clash at Hollywoodbets Greyville in July. Sure, RED PALACE won easing up, but SAARTJIE made up a lot of ground to get as close as she did, is now marginally better off at the weights and will relish the long summer course stretch.
DOUBLE GRAND SLAM is another principal candidate. The daughter of Vercingetorix is very classy (she comfortably holds RAINBOW LORIKEET on these weight terms), possesses a sharp turn of foot and is poised for another career top performance under the judicious handling of top trainer, Justin Snaith. A hard run nine panels may stretch her endurance, but to assume that she won’t last home could be a costly error.
3YO Highveld raider, WORLD OF ALICE is most interesting in this cross-generational showdown. Sean Tarry is an expert at placing horses where they belong, and with 54kg’s to carry his One World filly with a powerful finish is seriously live.
Mike de Kock brings SILVER SANCTUARY back to the Cape. She got mugged on the line by since exported Beach Bomb in the 2023 World Sports Betting Cape Fillies Guineas and her recent game effort to stable mate, White Pearl confirms her current well-being. A hard run 1800m should be most suitable – jockey, Oisin Murphy has a magic touch, and he can extract a career best out of this Silvano filly at her 16th start.
Justin Snaith’s LITTLE SUZIE is hard to assess after only five starts – she seems in a bit too deep at first glance. Sighted running on purposefully in the Western Cape Fillies Championship and World Sports Betting Cape Fillies Guineas (both false run affairs) she can make considerable improvement over this sterner test as she is out of former, Cape Town MET winner, Oh Susanna.
The 2025 Cartier Paddock Stakes is a contentious contest. P6 and Jackpot bettors may need to include quite a few to give themselves a good chance of advancing in those Pools.
The main group should include SAARTJIE and DOUBLE GRAND SLAM who are proven in these upper echelon Graded showpieces, and perhaps also an exciting 3YO with untapped reserves, World of Alice.
Back up alternatives for wider tickets are RED PALACE, RASCOVA (who stunned DOUBLE GRAND SLAM in the SA Fillies Guineas in May but has been soundly beaten by Snaith’s star on three other occasions, though) and SILVER SANCTUARY.
RAINBOW LORIKEET and LITTLE SUZIE are extremely unlikely to win so would be a waste of resources in the Picks but are reasonable additions underneath in Tris/Quartets.
