The World Sports Betting Green Point Stakes over 1600m is a Gr 2 run at weight for age with a potent honours roll of outstanding milers and middle-distance heroes. It has historically been used as a buildup race for high class horses targeting Gr 1’s such as the L’Ormarins King’s Plate and World Sports Betting Cape Town MET.
Six horses line up for the 2024 edition with OMR’s ranging from GREEN WITH ENVY’s 127 down to SUGAR MOUNTAIN’s 116. Apart from the erratic, WITHOUT QUESTION on 120, the other four are tightly clustered in a narrow band of 124-125.
Not only is the field closely matched but fitness queries about two Gr 1 winners compound the puzzle. GREEN WITH ENVY and ORIENTAL CHARM resume after last running 154 days ago in the Hollywoodbets Durban July.
They have contrasting running styles. Cape Derby, KZN Guineas and Daily News victor, GREEN WITH ENVY comes from off the pace whilst ORIENTAL CHARM likes to seize control upfront. Those assertive tactics were carried out to perfection in his Hollywoodbets Durban July start-to-finish, tour-de force under J.P. van der Merwe.
The adaptable, ROYAL AUSSIE can employ varying pace strategies. He ran arguably his best race in the L’Ormarins King’s Plate when held up dead last from a wide gate before powering through to get within four lengths of Charles Dickens. He also ran especially well when staving off Cousin Casey in the Drill Hall Stakes – after pressing the pace. He should be fitter after a comeback run behind Rascallion in the Cape Mile and that tactical versatility and edge in conditioning means he must be included in calculations.
SURJAY is one of the most consistent horses in training in South Africa. It seems not to matter a jot to him which venue or distance he is put over by trainer Brett Crawford and he will run right up to his rating. As such he too must be respected, even if he lacks the glossy sheen of proven Gr 1 stars.
SUGAR MOUNTAIN might find this too hot to handle. He is ultra game and sports an interesting form pattern of four wins from six tries second up after a rest – and this is his second start after a layoff. But he will need to reach a new career top aged six (which is unlikely) and for all his adversaries to run below best to trouble the judge.
This is a tough one to call despite the small field. Classy thoroughbred, GREEN WITH ENVY is three from three after a rest so gets the marginal nod over ORIENTAL CHARM but it makes sense to use both in P6 and Jackpot perms. ROYAL AUSSIE can strike if the top two fall short of fitness at their seasonal openers so is the logical back-up.
Strict adherents to the official, best weighted rating system would deem the What a Winter mare, ASIYE PHAMBILI a can’t-lose stand-out in the World Sports Betting Southern Cross Stakes over 1000m (Gr 3.) She has a massive 14-point advantage over NORDIC QUEST, with CANDY TOWN, SUMMER LILY and MISS WORLD even further behind and, accordingly, is priced up at even money in early trade.
It also helps that she gets powerhouse jock, Richard Fourie and has a fine record down the Hollywoodbets Kenilworth straight. She just missed a month ago lumping 63.5kg’s. On the weight turnaround, her conqueror, MISS MARGUERITE cannot beat her this time.
NORDIC QUEST and SUMMER LILY pose bigger threats. The former is better assessed on her hammering of Bass Racing stable companion, The Charleston and fluent defeat of Knockout, rather than that most recent fail when she may have bounced second up after a rest.
SUMMER LILY looks especially interesting. Campaigned over further (1400m-1800m) she was suddenly turned back to sprints, fitted with blinkers and held up off the pace – quite the “verandering van taktiek” by Snaith Racing.
And that bold initiative so nearly paid off as she hurtled through to within half a length of MISS MARGUERITE and ASIYE PHAMBILI despite getting baulked and bumped at a vital stage. Confidence rider, Grant van Niekerk hit a sizzling streak midweek with several inspired steers, and he will try sustaining that momentum on the tempting 5/1 shot.
MISS WORLD is a smart Greg Ennion trained filly that will give her running racing handy, while I’M SO PRITTI is improving nicely but may find herself in a little too deep here.
CANDY TOWN is super quick but lightly raced at intervals this year – a sign of physical issues. She will be a clear pace influence in a short field but, as mentioned earlier, rates 15 points off Gareth van Zyl’s, ASIYE PHAMBILI. If the 20/1 outsider is allowed to clear off far ahead, she might keep going for a place.
That leaves HIGHLYCONFIDENTIAL who appears well held on multiple lines of form.
