By Mark van Deventer
The layers give ONE STRIPE a 50% chance of taking out the Hollywoodbets Cape Guineas and add yet another triumph in the historic Gr 1 Classic for maestro, Vaughan Marshall.
His charge is even money favourite to get the job done and he sports imposing credentials. His penultimate run, when conceding 1kg to year older top-quality rival, SNOW PILOT was exceptional, and the son of One World duly followed up by running down stable mate, ALL OUT FOR SIX to win the The Cape Punters Cup over the course and distance.
He is drawn on the paint; once again gets the best possible guidance from high percentage hoop, Gavin Lerena, and should be able to secure a perfect stalk and pounce trip. All these positive factors make him hard to beat.
Justin Snaith steps out some livewire challenges. GREAT PLAINS is a very smart grey Danon Platina blessed with swift acceleration. He comes in off a classy score in the Cape Classic and has scope to do even better second up after a break.
Likewise, Langerman victor, EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN started his summer campaign by running on willingly 2.75 lengths behind ONE STRIPE. He will now be fitter for this targeted showdown and can get closer to his previous conqueror.
Snaith also saddles SAIL THE SEAS. He has won three of five outings at a lower level and whilst he knows how to win, must elevate his game against Saturday’s more formidable foes.
HEATHER’S BOY represents powerful Highveld connections. Mike de Kock always brings primed entries with a conditioning edge to the Western Cape – and he’s toppled local hotties before with that approach – just think Soqrat in 2018 and Noah from Goa in 2015.
HEATHER’S BOY (by Rafeef) is a perfect three from three – but a literal reading of the OMR’s suggests he will need to improve quite substantially on a mark of 102 + to menace the principals.
BOUNDLESS ENERGY’s form ties in with GREAT PLAINS as they clashed in the Cape Classic 42 days ago. GREAT PLAINS staved off Candice Bass Robinson’s charge, but only narrowly, as both finished swiftly. The son of Vercingetorix is very talented and seems sure to improve upon his rating over an extra 200m.
ON MY HONOUR won convincingly on the Fairview Polytrack at his penultimate. Glen Kotzen’s subsequent try on the lawn behind ONE STRIPE was dull and he will need to shine up come Saturday.
BJORN IRONSIDE must also improve on a tame last start when never a factor far behind SNOW PILOT. Prior to that, he ran older handicapper DUMBLEDORE close while conceding weight, which better reflects his ability.
O’TENIKWA has won half his six starts. Andre Nel has, until now, restricted him to sprinting. Being by Vercingetorix, he may well benefit from the longer route though this is way tougher than the Class 4 rivals he’s been beating up.
What of the pace? The speed map suggests that ALL OUT FOR SIX will try get over from draw 10 and lead. He has gone hard in his previous starts and that should tee things up for a true run race.
Other pace influencers include O’TENIKWA and ON MY HONOUR, with ONE STRIPE likely to settle just off them and get the run of the race on the rail. 3/1 second favourite, HEATHER’S BOY should also enjoy a smooth commute with Craig Zackey getting into the trail from gate 4, while Sail the Seas will probably slot in midfield.
Based on their closing sectionals, GREAT PLAINS, BOUNDLESS ENERGY and EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN will be the late-charging cavalry.
ONE STRIPE is the most likely winner on known form and favourite lovers will hook him up in multiples or confidently banker him in the Picks.
Sceptics unimpressed by the skinny odds might be tempted by the bigger prices of either GREAT PLAINS (10/1) or BOUNDLESS ENERGY (14/1) and take speculative each way stabs.
