By Mark van Deventer
The De Grendel Cape Merchants takes top billing at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Sunday. This Gr 2, twenty runner showdown, a handicap for 3YO horses and older, is carded as Race 7 and will start at 15h55.
It promises to be both an exciting spectacle and an intriguing betting event. Handicap races see the weights set to equalise the chances of all entrants, which if done correctly, lead to open wagering markets with good liquidity- and close finishes.
After crunching the numbers, three horses loom as potential winners – MEU CAPITANO, KING OF THE GAULS and THE REAL PRINCE. A wider spread of plausible contenders includes OUTLAW KING, FUTURE VARIETY, AT MY COMMAND and DANCE VARIETY.
MEU CAPITANO has been another gem of a discovery for canny prospector, Piet Steyn. He never buys at the top end of the market yet has such an experienced eye for a horse that he can somehow locate the potential of athletic specimens that lack sexy pedigrees and thus the attention of deep-pocketed buyers.
MEU CAPITANO is by Captain of All (bred at Beaumont Stud) and now the winner of four from ten starts. He can be a temperamental character, and it remains to be seen how he copes in such a big field given his running style of coming form off the pace. Yet his form is really smart, and with just 53kg’s to carry, he is sure to run a big race.
KING OF THE GAULS put up a spectacular performance in the 1000m Umgheni from draw 14 at Hollywoodbets Greyville in July. He stalked a torrid pace then drew off to win easily, in the process running a seriously big speed figure which portends Gr 1 level ability. No mean feat from a wide gate at a venue where a double-digit marble in sprints is often the kiss of death.
He may ultimately prove best over the minimum trip (the Cape Flying Champs in January is his primary mission) so there must be a doubt over him staving off the cavalry in a stiff 1200m. He also comes in here off a 147-day freshener – reports are that Tony Rivalland’s pride and joy is working well in Hollywoodbets Kenilworth morning hit-outs.
THE REAL PRINCE brings a big reputation to the races as befits a horse with such a potent pedigree. He is by champion sire, Gimmethegreenlight out of Real Princess and thus related to Gimme a Prince and Gimmie’s Countess. Based on a fluent score at only his fifth start where he combined a sharp final time with a seemingly effortlessly achieved swift closing sectional, he could be the real deal.
That stylish triumph was achieved over 1400m so the cutback to six panels will require alert pace judgement by Ant Mgudlwa. Despite that distance quibble, Dean Kannemeyer’s runner seems teed up to run a huge race.
Cosmic Highway
Kannemeyer also sends out OUTLAW KING, TEFLON MAN and COSMIC HIGHWAY. The latter is deadly down this straight course when all parts are in working order but is not one to rely on as his career has been derailed by physical setbacks.
TEFLON MAN is a nippy sort, capable of weaving through the traffic with a jinking run. As such he could enjoy a big field handicap though he lacks the suspected brilliance of stable elect, THE REAL PRINCE.
OUTLAW KING is best measured by a resolute try behind Rascova and can be excused his follow up when duffing the start. If he gets away on terms, then he can contend for the placings.
FUTURE VARIETY is poised to run a career top. His C/D try to Thunderstruck in the Khaya Stables Diadem was admirable and on another line of back form has about the same chance as recent fluent victor, DANCE VARIETY.
AT MY COMMAND has only won four times in a 22-start career but that does not accurately represent his true ability. He has often been prejudiced by bad draws over a variety of distances from 1200m – 1800m, yet somehow always seems to run sterling races.
He just missed in the Gr 1 Golden Horseshoe and Gr 2 Post Merchants over this distance and should again be staying on with purpose in a true run, 1200m.
CAFÉ CULTURE is another to consider. He got the run of the race to beat AT MY COMMAND in the Post Merchants and has been raised seven points for his troubles. He may now be in the grip of the handicapper and comes in off a 169-day break. It will be quite some feat were he to win this – but this feisty pace-presser drawn in pole position is too good to be ruled out of discussions despite those conditioning and handicapping queries.
Café Culture
SURJAY is a paragon of consistency who gets a nice set up as determined pace presser drawn low. But 63kg’s is an extremely stiff impost, and it is hard to see him being able to concede so much weight to quality foes.
Sean Tarry must be taken very seriously indeed when he steps out any Highveld raider on the Cape’s tracks. His record over the years with fit, cleverly placed entries is tremendous.
He saddles CELTIC RUMOURS and MIA MOO but both will need to boost their figures to feature on Sunday – it may well be that Tarry has other races targeted during Summer for these two daughters of Vercingetorix.
GIMMELIGHTNING and WECANGOALLNIGHT are deep closers who will need a pace meltdown. The former’s record ties in with DANCE VARIETY on their November clash so is a place hope.
WATERBERRY LANE was smart over 1400m earlier in his career but needs to catch a sudden wake up as he has not run a worthwhile race this year.
A more plausible candidate is SEEKING THE STARS, one of the few in this big field that love to force the issue. Gavin Lerena and Vaughan Marshall continue to team up to great effect and it will be an error of judgement by rival jocks if they give the stalwart, SEEKING THE STARS too much leeway. We all saw what happened when longshot, The Futurist was allowed to clear off into the distance in the Ridgemont Peninsula Handicap past Saturday, not to be caught by slow-to-react pursuers.
MUFASA also likes to move-it, move-it, but his form over 1200m is less convincing than his achievements over the short cuts. That leaves KING REGENT and PINEAPPLEMINTGREEN to complete the line up – they will load into the two outer (i.e. stand-side) gates.
KING REGENT has just won the Poly Challenge in the Eastern Cape after reeling off a hat-trick over 1200, 1400 and 1600m. He is as effective on lush green lawns and sports a level weights defeat of HOTY, Princess Calla on his CV so he should not be disregarded even if 58kg’s puts him arguably too high in the handicap. PINEPPPLEMINTGREEN might also now be in too deep after being raised to 104 when winning in the Eastern Cape in June.
The De Grendel Cape Merchants should be one of the highlights of the early Cape Summer Festival of Racing. Tabbing the winner would be satisfying in itself – such is the competitive nature of the field.
Catching the Quartet (first four past the post in precise order) would be a particularly rewarding accomplishment for venturesome, exotic- orientated bettors.
To summarize, THE REAL PRINCE, MEU CAPITANO and KING OF THE GAULS could be the main protagonists in what will zip by in under 72 seconds of high-speed thrills!
