Battle of the Champions in the World Sports Betting Green Point Stakes G2 on Saturday
– Written by Mark van Deventer
Bookmakers are taking no chances giving Charles Dickens a 71% probability of winning the World Sports Betting Green Point Stakes, a G2 weight-for-age contest for South Africa’s finest milers and middle-distance thoroughbreds.
Charles Dickens has compiled a formidable record, winning nine of 11 starts including multiple G1’s, and 1600m falls within his best distance range. Sure, he can be a difficult ride with a tendency to hang out and jumps from a tricky draw of 7. But his peak figures are off- the- charts remarkable, and it will be a shock were he to be toppled.
That said, Princess Calla has a greater chance than what the early betting suggests. Quotes of 13/2 compute to just a 13% probability of success so the market may correct itself closer to the off time, giving the reigning Horse of the Year more credit for her notable victories over Desert Miracle and reopposing middle distance champ, See It Again during the KZN Winter.
Al Muthana was a disregarded 70/1 bomb when he upset Charles Dickens in the 2023 King’s Plate; the only time that Candice Bass Robinson’s star has lost over a mile. Al Muthana has not won since, though he ran with distinction in both the Drill Hall Stakes (under a length off Trip of Fortune) and Gold Challenge when 1.4 lengths off Charles Dickens – and he’s now 1.5 kg better off. If he reverts to his best form, Ricky Maingard’s entry ought to be in the finish.
Royal Aussie rates around five lengths inferior to the odds-on favorite but is very determined pressing the pace and together with free-striding, Firealley should ensure a true run contest.
That leaves Rascallion and At My Command to make up the eight-runner field. The former is G1 placed/G2 winner who gives his running nearly every time and should work out a smooth commute from the inside barrier. Trainer Vaughan Marshall reports he is putting up good work at home and should run well, even if 1600m is a little on the short side for him these days.
The lightly campaigned, At My Command’s current situation is harder to assess. On back form, three lengths off Charles Dickens in the Cape Classic and 4.35 lengths behind the same daunting rival in the Cape Guineas, he would have place claims.
To conclude, mighty miler Charles Dickens will most likely add to his stellar resume come Saturday afternoon. P6 players who want to boost their chances of getting through Leg 3 to over 80% may add Princess Calla to their perms, just in case of mishaps. On his top efforts, the enigmatic Al Muthana is not impossible, either….
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